When A Tie is a Loss

To say that ether candidate won the First Presidential Debate over the other is pretty much a political mindset.  I saw nothing that gave the debate to McCain or Obama so that one of the two could walk away satisfied he’d fried his opponent in poli-oil.  Uh Uh.  Not a whole lot between them.

Both men were presidential in their bearing and demeanor.  There was no mention of McCain’s gaffe in quitting the campaign and cancelling the debate for the good of the country, he did not and the general consensus seems to be it was seen for what it was — political posturing and little more. 

I was embroiled with my favorite critic on that point.  I had roasted McCain for being transparently political in doing what he did.  My friend disagreed, quote: “I think McCain gambled that he would be seen as seriously concerned to the point where he would give up his own campaigning for a bit and use what influence he could to broker a deal.”

Maybe so but Senate Leader Harry Reid speaking on TV the night before pointed out that the committee was close to a deal until one particular candidate showed up (he wasn’t talking about Barack Obama) and pretty much wrecked what had been accomplished – then  this candidate stood around in front of cameras.   

And of course McCain did show up for the debate although he had said earlier he would not.  I think you owe me a lunch, sir.  No matter what President Bush wanted, McCain’s appearance was decidedly unnecessary and unwarrented.  If indeed, he thought what you think he thought, he thought wrong.  (Pardon the grammar — and I’m sure you’ll win the lunch back before long.)

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I didn’t hear much that I haven’t heard before from either candidate.  They discussed the economic crisis and maybe Senator Obama was a little closer to home when he repeated his stance that no CEO’s would get a free ride on tax cuts — no golden parachutes; reiterated that the Health Care System needed overhauling; said he would eliminate useless jobs. 

McCain said he would fight against $930 million in pork barrel initiatives; would veto useless projects; deplored the 700 billion per year sent overseas to what amounted to America’s enemies. 

Both men made sense in that area.  They’ve had lots of practice during the last couple of weeks but neither scored a knockout.  Obama was eloquent but that’s Obama, he’s eloquent.  However McCain is homey and can be comforting with his “Look here, let me just …” story telling prop.

Which brings to mind one thing that did define the two men during the debate?  If anything John McCain was, at least to some extent, condescending.  One pundit I heard mentioned the word “lecturing” in reference to his addressing moderator Jim Lehrer regarding Senator Obama.

However, this was offset by Obama being almost overly conciliatory.  He must have said five times, “I agree with what John said on…”  I don’t think that either man had to use those phrases.  It’s as if McCain was harkening back to another GOP candidate — Ronald Reagan, when debating Jimmy Carter and used the phrase several times, “There you go again …” it became annoying. Or Kennedy chuckling at Nixon.  Maybe it’s personal but I think these homilies have no part in a serious presidential debate.

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For someone who is supposed to be slack on Foreign Policy, Senator Obama was firm calling for four times the troop strength in Afghanistan as opposed to Iraq.  Not surprising considering he wants a troop reduction time-table to get troops out of Iraq — but he zeroed in on specifics such as the poppy trade and Afghan strikes against Pakistan.

However it was largely in this field that McCain showed his experience. He hammered home the fact that America would not fail the Afghan people as was the case with Russia. Made it clear he would help Pakistan in its border skirmishes with their western neighbor and made a solid point when he said the situation between the two countries went beyond the battleground by bringing up the Marriot hotel bombing.

McCain scored points when he told the audience he voted against Ronald Reagan sending troops to Lebanon, and he was right considering the barracks bombing. He supported the first Iraq war (which was justified — caused by Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait) and he also supported the NATO stance in Bosnia and Kosovo. 

Both men agreed that Iran was a threat, certainly to Israel.  And President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a man to be dealt with.  Obama emphasized that tougher sanctions against Iran should be underscored with tougher diplomacy.  I felt he made it clear that his oft stated plan to sit down with leaders such as the Iranian president were foolish, indicating talks could proceed at a lower level of government with such nations.

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As for Russia, Senator McCain said what he saw in Putin was KGB, raising the spectre of the Cold War.  He also brought up a salient point; Russia was using its oil pipeline through Ukraine as a tool and added that Putin should understand that the United States supports entry into NATO for both Ukraine and Georgia.  The Arizona Senator has definite, defined ideas about the area around the Black Sea.

Senator Obama made it clear that the United States did not act fast enough in dealing with the situation in Georgia and agreed with McCain when he brought up the point that Putin was playing strongman because of his energy reserves.

Nothing new in the fact that Obama spoke of the need for a time-table pull-out of US troops on Iraq while his opponent said no to any specific dates; Obama abhors the spending of  billions of dollars  on keeping US forces stationed in Iraq while Iraq is running a 79 billion dollar surplus and made it clear that the surge was nothing more than a clean-up for the bungled job already committed by the Bush administration.

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McCain presented his oft mentioned need for off shore drilling while Obama urged for alternate energy sources.  These two points have been bandied about on the campaign trail since Iowa.

It was not a nail-biter; one didn’t feel they were going to miss much if they took a bathroom break.  If Obama scored a 7 out of 10 on economic policy, McCain scored a 7 out of 10 on Foreign policy.  Add ‘em together and you have what amounts to a tie over the course of the 100 minutes.

But the proof of the pudding will show in the polls.  McCain should not be satisfied with a tie. (I doubt the word has entered his head)   He needed a decisive win.  Remember he trails the Democratic candidate by 4 percent. So in order to score a win, he had to regain the bounce he lost during the economic crisis.

 I could be dead wrong. I’m sure the American Spectator and the Weekly Standard are going to call it a McCain blow-out while the New York Times (except for Ann Coulter) and CNN will lean towards Obama.  Well we’ll just have to see if the GOP machine gains percentage points.

If it doesn’t, we have two more debates yet to come.  And of course there’s the Vice Presidential debate.  Considering her words concerning her “neighbour”, Russia and its significance to Alaska when she spoke with CBS’ Katie Couric, Sarah Palin is undoubtedly in need of better preparededness when she takes on Joe Biden on October 2^nd.

Of Pause And Passage

John McCain seems to have had a lapse of brainwave circuitry.  He wants to stop campaigning, go to Washington and consult with his Senate buddies about the current financial crisis.  He wants to close up shop indefinitely, pull his media advertisements, cancel confrontations; hunker down.

Maybe so John but your timing is rather poor.  In case nobody has impressed you with the fact lately, you are still running for president.  It would be a sad thing indeed if every time a crisis hit the USA the president went to Camp David with a few advisors and pulled the plug on all his communication processes.  And tossed away his Blackberry.

John you are in a bind.  If Congress doesn’t pass Treasury Secretary Paulson’s care package by debate time you are going to default to Barack Obama?  I don’t say that’s a bad thing, it’s just that it’s a bad way to act.  Obama is right.  A president must be able to do two things at once.  In this case, campaign and give advice to the American people on the colossal financial mess the country faces.

You’ve turned turtle.  And if by some chance Congress does pass the administration’s package before the debate and you do appear on TV, or conversely, if you bow to the urgings of those in your party who are in favor of you taking on your opponent, you will have done the political equivalent of the Fosbury Flop.

You may want to recall that Jimmy Carter refused to campaign while the staff at the US Embassy in Iran was being held hostage back in 1980.  And his was a nobler bid than what you are doing.  The people decided that Carter was a nice guy but a lousy campaigner and voted for Ronald Reagan; the fact that Reagan probably would have won anyway, notwithstanding.    

You now are damned if you do and damned if you don’t.  It’s all very well to heed the president’s summons for a meeting, along with Senator Obama, at the White House in Washington but to stay in town and tank the campaign is very suspicious.

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McCain is trailing Obama in several of the fourteen or so battleground states.  Three of the largest, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan are looking like Obama wins.  McCain does have the lead in some important states but the electoral votes fall well short of those seemingly going to the Democrats. 

There is a certain smell of scandalous activity floating around the GOP ticket as well.  A kind of messy business concerning Senator McCain’s campaign manager, Rick Davis’ distant attachment to the Freddie Mac bail-out and a hint of untoward actions seems to be piling up against Vice President hopeful Sarah Palin up in Alaska, one concerning her brother-in-law.  Also, the economic crisis is not helping McCain who doesn’t seem to have a handle on it.

These could all be reasons for skipping out and hoping that the voters will see that it — to quote the words of one New York McCain backer, Assemblyman Phil Boyle: “proves once again that Sen. McCain is the type of leader willing to put politics aside to focus on what is best for our country in this time of financial crisis.”

Maybe.  And maybe McCain is leery of facing this well-spoken, young Illinois Senator in front of more than 100 million television viewers considering the above.  I kind of doubt that; he’s laced with mettle and proved as much in Vietnam but there are those who will ignore the strength of this candidate and label him chicken.  I’d like to think that McCain is just following bad advice and should fight his way out of this problem.

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The man labeled the most important government official of the hour, Secretary of the US Treasury Henry Paulson – along with President Bush — has a full court press on the floor of Congress.  They have been appealing to the US voter’s – Bush with his deer-in-the-headlights appearance on television Wednesday in prime time … Paulson’s pate appearing in as many sound bites as the TV crews can splice out of his recent addresses.  These two want passage.

They are pulling out all the stops: the TV appearances; inviting both Obama and McCain to the White House; on the phone dawn till dark warning of “dire” consequences should their bill fail.  A little like shutting the barn door isn’t it?  These were members of the political party that have run things since well before this crisis began.

One of my correspondents in California, far right wing, blames then-President Bill Clinton’s plan to allow home ownership for some of the nations poorer class families — a policy perpetuated by President Bush. But it got out of hand.  One reason was because Alan Greenspan was frightened to death of a business downturn and lowered interest rates to what my friend calls interest-free money.  

Well, we did have a rather disrupting occurrence take place seven years ago;  9/11 boded ill for money markets.  And when, in retaliation, the administration began spending billions of dollars on two wars in the Middle East … it brings to mind an avalanche.

Another colleague who regularly has his opinions printed in various op-ed columns has written his Senator putting things in perspective with his words: “I don’t understand, with trillions and trillions of dollars and other currencies in circulation how 700 billion could so easily save the world.”

My friend, Mr. Corns, has also made it clear “that the administration should not get away with including credit card debts or car loans in the bail-out.”  He made note of – and this is something we have all seen – “Unsolicited bank mailings of credit card offerings opened the door for card holder abuse and allowed enormous sums of money to be charged that couldn’t be paid back.” He ads “let the banks pay.”

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Another thing that strikes me and I’m sure strikes you as well:  the Paulson package should not allow any corporate CEO’s, presidents or managers to make one thin dime off of any home buyer’s mortgages especially if the homes are priced too high.  Too many lenders have made too much money already.  The bloodletting has been at the bottom.  If this package goes through it should be clear that the profit picture at the top is cut to a minimum.

This brings up the question of not just cleaning up the basement but cleaning out the attic as well.  It would appear that a lot of new blood is needed to replace the vultures who had a hand in this mess by flagrantly mishandling the economy and pocketing millions.  Pluck ‘em, like a Thanksgiving turkey. 

     

Hurricane Wall Street

In the West people are facing another weekend of wondering and nail biting.  Last weekend it was Hurricane Ike, this weekend it’s the “Stimulus Package” sent to Congress from the White House to try and stop the leakage of currency which until Wednesday was disappearing as if sucked into a Florida sink-hole.

The Dow ended up at Friday’s close and the week finished a bit firmer but with the Financial Market gulping Alka-Seltzer to calm a still queasy stomach.  Yeah, back on firmer ground but who knows if there’s not going to be aftershocks.  Who knows if the Democrat controlled Congress will even pass the bill.  Sure the leaders have agreed to some terms but can they convince their members to go along?

And if they do go along just how sound is the package which really amounts to the United States printing a huge wad of money in the form of a bond issue.  Other countries are involved too and few analysts around the world are relieved to the extent they are drinking Champaign because the major bourse’s bounced back from the abyss. Fluctuations could still ripple despite the Nikei, the Hang-Seng and the SGX in Asia; the FTSE, CAC-40 and DAX-30 in Europe all closing green. 

The world is waiting for word from US House leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate leader Harry Reid that Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson’s massive packet of hope has gained acceptance. This means a magnet still hangs on the TV set where CNN, MSNBC & Fox’s talking heads are expounding and speculating — stalling for time as to the outcome.   It should be an interesting Monday morning at the opening bell on Wall Street.

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Here in the Philippines, people are the next thing to ignorant of all this financial yammering.  When money numbers in the trillions are bandied about, the average Filipino, as well as the average South East Asian is pretty much immersed in fog.  An exception can be made for Singapore and Hong Kong where traders are aware that a bunker-buster bomb exploded in New York where only two of five old Investment stalwarts have not been blown off their foundations.

In March, Bear Stearns suffered collapse after 30 billion in Government funded loans failed to halt the bleeding.  They did not get a second chance. Last week Lehman Bros. filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy after being unable to attract the same entity Bear Stearns failed to achieve. (Chapter 11 simply means you lose your business but the Company name remains in play.)

Bank of America, the Consumer Bank – one that takes deposits and makes loans as opposed to investing capital – grabbed up a third faltering Investment firm, the 94 year old Merrill Lynch and no sooner was that deal made than the giant American Insurance Group (AIG) buckled at the knees and was propped up by a 2 year, 85 billion dollar bail-out with more strings attached than an old fashioned floor mop.

Now people in SE Asia sat up and took noticed.  Filipinos are only too aware of Philam Life, a member of AIG.  It sports a monster office building in the center of Manila’s tony Makati District and has branch offices throughout the country and the region with Asian Headquarters in Hong Kong.  AIG, originally an Asian Company (Shanghai) had a scrape with fraud a few years ago and was fined 1.6 billion dollars but withstood that as a tap on the wrist.

Its next problem has been more complicated and considerably more costly — 70 times more costly.  Last week the US Federal Reserve propped the insurance giant but nobody really breathed any easier.  The AIG mess (it is a Dow component) had a sobering effect on the entire world and threw both Wall Street and the London Financial District into a massive case of jitters, loan or no loan.

Then, midweek, a 180 Billion dollar US Government package injected into the marketplace eased tensions and the stock indexes began to climb after the Dow showed a positive reaction.  To allow you some idea of the size of all this; the Dow Industrial Average underwent a 2000 point shift, about 1000 in each direction from Monday morning’s opening to Friday night’s close.   

The apparent stability looked promising.  By late Thursday, news that Paulson had prepared the multi-hundred-billion dollar Stimulus package mentioned above hit the media.  Both Paulson and President Geo W Bush appeared on TV and the waters began to smooth.  We are now awaiting the decision of the US Congress to accept, or reject.

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Shoved into the background has been the destructive force of Hurricane Ike; pictures of the damage are now circulating over the Internet.  We are again talking billions of dollars in loss.  The photos of Ike’s destructive passage from the Texas coast to the storm’s dregs reaching as far as the Canadian Border are heartbreaking, mindful of the squalor left after the Tsunami which struck the Indian Ocean the day after Christmas in 2004.

Also slowed in their bluster and rhetoric were the candidates for President and Vice President of the USA.  Mind you it took only a matter of 36 hours for Senators Obama, McCain, Biden and Governor Palin to find their voices and the media caught the hesitant flip-flop of the McCain camp which propelled Barack Obama back into the lead following his own downward drift, the result of the bounce from the GOP Convention and the advent of Sarah Palin, the pageant queen who skated to instant stardom from the land of ice, oil and Moose.

In many parts of the world, including way down here in the tropics — people, momentarily rattled by AIG’s floundering escape, have returned to the rice fields or where-ever and have accepted conditions they cannot influence or change … or even understand.  Goats, pigs, water buffalo; rice, okra and corn are handled with ease.  Money markets bandying around stock values measured in trillions:  the stuff of fools who are more adept at complicating their lives than living them.

We all make mistakes and it appears persons unknown except to those who’s concern it is to know, can handle terms such as financial liquidity, counterparty credit risks, distressed securities and short-selling; stuff being discussed on cable-TV.  Folks in the rural country in which I live have gone back to their televised beauty contests and game shows, lotteries and bingo.  Why bother with concepts that are no more substantial to the average Filipino than sea foam.

Speaking of mistake’s my apologies to the citizens of Canada.  It was pointed out to me by one of my best and toughest critics that no 9/11 terrorists entered the US from Canada as so stated in the piece filed last week.  They all came through US ports of entry.  And Potash, the product found in Saskatchewan is potassium chloride, not potassium carbonate as I stated.  I have no wish to have the Province of Saskatchewan upset by my blunder.     

Another correspondent wrote that her reflections of times gone by when we watched the Lone Ranger, Andy Hardy and the Mouskateers, seemed to have given way to an unsure world.  I say, yes Connie, things were more simple and easy to understand — to which many young people will counter with: but you had no cell-phones, iPods or Playstations – what did you do to have fun?  Gee, we just couldn’t have any fun; we were a terribly sad generation.